Abstract: through available data was conducted from trusted

Abstract:

The war in
Syria, now in its 6th year, the deterioration of the security and humanitarian
situation in Syria as a result of the ongoing crisis has forced thousands of
Syrians to flee and seek refuge in neighboring countries, including Lebanon.

 has extremely influenced
Lebanon’s social and economic areas.

The economic and social effect of the Syrian clutch is one of the
critical issues confronting Lebanon. The total number of Syrians refugees who
took shelter in Lebanon since the flare-up of the crises in March 2011 stands
at more than 1.5 million, proportionate to about a fourth of Lebanon’s
population. This has stressed public financial capacities and the environmental
services in Lebanon. The crises is additionally anticipated that would increase
poverty among the Lebanese and widen the income inequality gap.

Specifically, estimates show that because of the Syrian crises,
around 200,000 Lebanese nationals fell into the grasp of poverty, moreover
300,000 Lebanese nationals have turned out to be jobless, and the greater part
of them are unskilled youngsters, which is without a doubt a result of the low
cost of Syrian workers.

The sudden
overpopulation has influenced almost every conceivable segment: the economy,
traffic, trade, health care, public finance, education, safety, tourism, public
debt, GDP, Growth, infrastructure, the labor market, and waste management. The
flood of evacuees likewise jeopardizes the interior social adjust in Lebanon.
To conduct this research A scan through available data was conducted from
trusted sources and organizations affiliated to or partnering with UNHCR in
their effort to provide services to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

 

 

Introduction

Lebanon, a little nation with a surface area of 10,452 km2 and a
mountain nature, located on the east of the Mediterranean Sea in western Asia
and bounded by Syria in the north and the east and Palestine in the south.
Lebanon’s most significant asset is water; yet, it is considerably lost due to
problematic administration. Lebanon was found in September 1920 and the
Lebanese constitution was composed in 1926 announcing it as a free economy,
parliamentary system, and secular Arab
state. Corrected after the autonomy in 1943 and Amended again in 1990 through
the Ta’if Accord, the constitution recognizes the rights of every religious
group, yet requests the inevitable end of political confessionalism, formally
perceiving more than 18 religious sects. 4.467 million is the total estimated population, yet no exact
numbers on the populace per sect are available. More than 220,000 Palestinians
live in refugee camps and 40,000 Iraqi refugees and in addition an extra
100,000 laborers including domestic specialists and semi-talented laborers,
significantly from Egypt, African, and South East Asian nations, live in the
country. And now The Syrian crises popped up bringing with it Syrian Refugee
influx.

This project looks at the relationship
between the factors effectively predominant in Lebanon and the role of the
Syrian refugee influx in the Lebanese economy.

Statement of
Problem:

The Crises has
influenced almost every conceivable segment: the economy, traffic, trade,
health care, public finance, education, safety, tourism, public debt, GDP,
Growth, infrastructure, the labor market, and waste management. Moreover,
increasing the poverty rates in Lebanon, increasing the gap between the rich
class and the poor class, and eventually leading the middle class to decrease
dramatically.

 

Literature
Review:

The objective of the study was to measure the impact of Syrian
refugees on host communities in order to provide a better understanding of
their employment profile.

Methodology:

A scan over accessible data was conducted from trusted sources and
associations affiliated to or partnering together with UNHCR in their effort to
give social and health care services to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Numbers
and figures were looked up among official reports, surveys and studies from
UNHCR and their partners. Visited databases included Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, PreventionWeb, ReliefWeb, United
Nations Development Project, Office of the United Nations Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR), and the World Health Organization (WHO). World Bank
reports and distributed articles were additionally taken into consideration to
help with the study.

A rich database of data was aggregated on socioeconomics,
livelihood, geographic location, and financial status of the refugees in
Lebanon. Specifically, economic information about the impact of refugees on the
economy has been collected to draw a comprehensive picture of their present
situation. For that, information for the years 2011 through 2017 have been
examined.

The target of the examination was to understand the effect of
Syrian refugees have on host communities in order to provide a better
understanding on host communities.  The
methodological approach depended on a literature view and past knowledge
pertinent to the Syrian refugees in the country.

The Project adopted the following
methodology:

• Desk review of accessible available literature and recent studies
on Syrian refugees.

• A semi- structured questionnaire was created It included
questions on household composition, employment, education, working conditions,
and wages. Conveyed in Mount Lebanon, Aley, Ain Hala.

Analysis of
findings:

The effect of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon is Catastrophic. We will
be analyzing the impact of the Syrian refugees on the Sections of the Lebanese
Economy that includes the: Transit movement, Tourism, Lebanese Companies,
Unemployment, GDP, Labor, Enterprises, Education, Health Care, Poverty,
Government, and Taxes.

Transit
Movement:

Knowing the Lebanon is bordered by the sea from the west, Palestine
from the south and Syria from the North and south, that made Lebanon only land
connection with the world under danger. The continuous war in Syria, which
involved a condition of insecurity, risks and potential losses, caused a 60%
drop in land transportation from Jordan, Iraq and other. This raised the
pressure forced ashore and airship cargo limits, prompting an increase in
transportation costs that caused to a decrease in transportation activity.

 

Professor Jasim Ajaqah, consultant to the advisor to the minister
of economy and commerce for economic affairs since 2014, noted in his economic
briefs that Lebanon encountered a 11.4% decrease in revenues in 2015, compared
with 2014. Imports also dropped by 6% according to the Ministry of Finance.
These figures demonstrate that the drop in imports and imports will decrease
the budget deficit by 13.2% to roughly $3,500 million dollars toward the end
2015, as indicated by Professor Ajaqah.

 

Tourism: 

Tourism, particularly from the Gulf states, has dropped. This is
due to directions from the Gulf governments and local authorities to their
citizens to avoid traveling to Lebanon because of safety concerns.

The tourism and hospitality industry
is very susceptible to crisis as this industry is sensitive to visitors
recognitions and the impact of a decreased willingness to spend by both
corporate and

individual consumers.

With the falling apart situation in Syria, Arab tourists are having
trouble to pass through Syria to reach Lebanon. In addition, various Arab
countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar have issued travel
restrictions on their citizens wishing visit Lebanon, resulting in a decrease
in the number of Arab tourists from 581,597 in 2011 to 458,069 in 2012 and
131,894 in the first four months of the year 2013. Other visitors from
different parts of the world (other than Syria) were also hesitant to visit
Lebanon (most the Middle East, which is seen as a risky area), resulting in a
decrease of 17% of tourists over the period 2011-2012. This effect is felt by
the hotel business,  with an
extraordinary negative effect on occupancy rates and revenues.

Offshoring: 

fear prevailed
over the Lebanese investment market overall. This led investors to search for new destinations and for
companies to move overseas, accordingly ensuing in
a big wave of Lebanese
investments in Cyprus. numerous exhibitions, meetings and plans for investments within
the island are being held. From a historic angle,
Cyprus often constituted
a secure haven for
Lebanese organizations since
the instances of the civil battle (1975-1990).

 

Jobs
& Labor:
One early manifestation of the effect of the Syrian disaster at the Lebanese economic
system was obvious on the labour sector. Minister of Labor Sajan Qazzi confirmed early in the summer of 2015 that the
unemployment rate in Lebanon
had reached 25%, 36% of which have been youths, marking a increased if compared to 2014, when unemployment was about 20% according to the World Bank. The influx
Syrian refugees  played role
in wage cuts due to
the fact many Lebanese workers were replaced by Syrians
who had been willing to just accept lower pay. The crises
prompted Minister Qazzi to issue an order in January 2015 making it compulsory for Syrian employees to attain work permits.

The minister’s choice has somewhat reduced the number of Lebanese people being replaced by Syrians. 

moreover, these ‘foreign’ companies stand in host communities exclusively employing Syrians in positions sought by low-skill Lebanese workers, which includes: sales persons, waiters, and cleaners.
In fact, 45% of Syrian people are employed in agricultural works, building concierges, taxi drivers, domestic workers, and
their likes. another 43% take on casual positions in commerce and semi-professional jobs, like carpeting, welding, repairmen,
mechanics, handicraft, and food processing.

the Lebanese economy fails to create sufficient jobs to “absorb the
growing number of job seekers. According to Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank’s
Middle East Director. “The few jobs left created by the economy are
concentrated in “low productivity sectors” as per the World Bank’s Miles
Report. Ultimately, the intense competition between low-skilled Lebanese and
Syrians persists in a vicious cycle, with wages left to free fall to protracted
highs.” And because of the low cost Syrian labor they are taking most of the
jobs not mentioning that they don’t have to be guaranteed social security or
any recommendations.

Enterprises:

Many small Lebanese corporations have been crowded-out
of the marketplace by
using their Syrian counterparts. Many
small businesses, such
as restaurants, retail shops, bakeries, mechanical repairs and
others, have been replaced since the beginning of the problem.

Syrian businesses have a competitive advantage on several fronts. First, they’re able to offer clientele less
expensive fees for goods and services they get cheaply thru border-smuggling. Second, countrywide laws confirm that Syrian companies can begin-up “without monitoring” by
the local authorities; therefore, they do not need a license or maybe a rented office space.
They ultimately escape
from the high commercial electricity, water, and tax payments.

 

Education:

The refugee crisis has not most
effective affected the labor region, it has additionally had a primary impact on education. According
to Ministry of education, records for the
academic year 2014-2015, the number of registered Syrians in Lebanon’s public schools, which give free education,
reached 40,000. As for the current academic year, at a press conference hung on 15
October 2015 to announce a German government supply worth round $45 million to assist Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Minister of
Education Elias Bou Saab stated that
the number of students enrolled in Lebanese schools had risen to about 200,000.
The Lebanese government is dedicated to offering education to refugees
registered in public schools. However, every Syrian student is asked to pay an annual registration charge of $100 and some
other $60 for the Parents council fund, however in most cases
donors pay those costs. Regarding Syrian students
enrolled in the afternoon schools, delivered to deal
with the variety of refugees, each student pays fees
up to $600 payed from donors mostly. in the meantime, the UN high Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR) has allocated just over $73 million to support the schooling of Syrian refugees living in Lebanon.

 

Health Care:

the
refugee crises has immediately affected
the health-care area, particularly in the winter when infectious sicknesses consisting of cold and
influenza spread rapidly among refugees while hospitals are unable to cope with the number of patients. The Rafiq al-Hariri university clinic, as
an instance, is a government health center in Beirut that may accommodate approximately four hundred hospital beds, but is ready with only
221. earlier than the begin of the Syrian crisis, 75% of the patients were Lebanese and
25% were of various nationalities. Now, nearly half of the patients are Syrians.

Poverty:

Ultimately, the quality of life of citizens changed, leaving more
citizens below the poverty line. The
UNDP’s 2008 national poverty evaluation pre-crisis confirms around 30% of the Lebanese population (1 million individuals) were living under the
poverty line $4 per capita per day.
The study was complemented by the 2013 ESIA report, which discovered very excessive poverty costs concentratedin
Akkar region (53%) and the Bekaa (40%), in which Syrian refugees mainly settled. The World Bank estimated a
170,000 to 200,000 extra Lebanese
lived below poverty line by
using 2014.

Government:

Along the effect of refugees on local private consumption and investment, the indirect financial costs of
Syrian refugees magnified refugee-specific expenditures and reduced tax revenues, in the end pressuring the government budgets.

 It is argued that the Lebanese authorities is “fairly”
sharing the weight of
refugee burden on food, health, and health services with the international community, that
is mainly the UNHCR and its fellow UN government agencies in
Lebanon. However, this
is only partly true for two key reasons. 
First, the UNHCR’s database updated on Jan.1, 2017 suggests that 45%
of the funding asked has not been
granted yet but, while the Lebanese authorities is covering the gap indirectly. it
is really worth noting that as 55% of refugee charges are funded by using the UNHCR & sister agencies, the other 45% gap (about $850.46 million) of
refugee-related casts are left
to be tackled mostly by the Lebanese authorities as indirect social and infrastructure costs. 
By doing so, the Lebanese economic
system has maintained some balance. 
In fact,
“economic stability” is a public good and its provision is the high responsibility of national
governments who try to give citizens a chance for a “fair quality of life” via a strong economy and affordable costs of living.
However, the arrival of more refugees heightened refugee-specific prices by
means of 24% and 15% in 2012 and 2013,
respectively, exacerbating Lebanon’s price range deficit and lowering the countries capacity to discipline its improved Debt-to-GDP ratio.

second, Syrian
refugees not registered with
the UNHCR settled in host communities where they strained the country’s already vulnerable infrastructure. now not being
a signatory of the 1951 Refugee conference, the Lebanese government facilitated
the access of Syrian refugees
to Lebanon, and consequently,
their get admission to public services. The World Banks Economic and Social impact assessment of the Syrian crises on Lebanon (ESIA, hereof) anticipated the direct fiscal price over
2012-2014 at US$2.6 billion, of which US$589 million are in infrastructure
losses: water and sanitation, electricity, and  transport
sub-sectors. an extra US$1.1B
is incurred if action is taken
to repair infrastructure get
access and quality to pre-crisis levels.

INCREASED INFLATION AND PRICES
The increase in prices of basic commodities
and services has been a tough issue for web
hosting communities and Syrians alike.
The growing demand for rented accommodation has
exerted an
upward strain on rental charges, anticipated to
have risen on occasion by greater than 200% in
a period of six months. The situation appears to be even greater in
Beirut in which, in some districts, rents are stated to
have expanded through 400%, because
of the increasing demand for apartments. Refugees
are often able to come up with the money for rents by
squeezing several families into one apartment, consequently reducing the capability of
the Lebanese to rent or buy in
the real estate market.

Besides rent,
the costs of basic commodities which
include food, transportation and water has additionally risen.  An analysis
completed by Development Management International in 2012 on the change of
prices of basic commodities including food, medicines, rent, utility bills,
drinking water, washing water and transportation has showed a 15% inflation
rate in the region of Bekaa and 6% in the North.  The rate increases have
been attributed to more than one factor, including increase in demand
due to the influx of refugees, the injection
of cash and food/coins vouchers via donors to the
Syrian refugees – particularly food and rent – and
the increase in fuel expenses, which amplified the
transportation expenses of products. On the other hand,
the decreased access to less expensive goods is
draining the household income of both Syrians and
host communities. Before the crisis,
many merchandise and items was once provided from
Syria at lower costs; however because of the
security conditions they’re being purchased
locally, however extra expensively. 
Unsurprisingly, inflationary trends vary significantly from
one region to another and have had
the most intense effect on
the poorest groups that already be suffer
by weak purchasing power and a great level of
deprivation and lack of resources.

Tax:

at the revenues side of
the government budget, losses had been incurred in revenue collection and taxes on wages
and salaries since 2011. Revenue collection from
overcrowded communities and casual employment fell by  US$1.5B among 2012 and 2014, in line with World Bank estimate. Understanding that a piece of government revenues is gathered from taxes on people’
salaries and wages, the broader the
workers force formed inside the labor market ideally meant extensively better revenues earned from taxes paid on
wages.  The latest figures obtained from the Ministry of
Finance shows that the pace of growth
of government revenues from income tax on wages & salaries is on an alarming
downward trajectory.

 

Conclusion:

One of the main outcomes of this
report is that Syrian refugees’ conditions are dire in terms of their poor
livelihoods and incomes. The Syrian refugees are, nevertheless, living
side-by-side Lebanese communities who were already suffering from social exclusion.
The two populations are concentrated in the most impoverished regions, and
compete for poorly paid and scarce job opportunities. They earn very low
incomes, have access to low quality overstrained public services, and have to
cope with increasing prices. During the initial months of the Syrian refugee
influx, Lebanese host communities were more hospitable and generous in their
reception of the refugees. However, as the crisis protracted, the economy of
Lebanon deteriorated and the influx of Syrian refugees kept growing,
threatening social stability within host communities.

Indeed, the Syrian crisis and
refugee influx has had many destabilizing consequences for Lebanon as a whole.
A recent World Bank assessment points to a reduction in GDP growth by 2.85 per
cent each year since the crisis began and estimates that the total cost of the
crisis to Lebanon will reach 7.5 USD billion by end 2014. This includes, as
noted earlier, impact on major economic sectors such as services, trade and
tourism. Moreover, public spending on education and health has increased
significantly; the quality of public services has reportedly deteriorated while
prices for basic necessities, such as fuel or rental accommodation, have
increased.40

 

Over and above, prior to the Syrian
crisis, Lebanon had been facing high unemployment rates that coincided with a
prevalence of low quality and low productivity jobs in an unregulated and
poorly governed labour market. This related mainly to a lack of compliance with
labour laws in terms of deteriorating working conditions and a large informal
economy that included child labour and limited application of the minimum wage
laws.

The current study helped to shed
light on the profile of Syrian refugees. They are mostly young, poorly educated
and have minimal savings or incomes. The economically active among them are
either unemployed or working in low skilled low paid jobs, mostly on daily
wages and without any form of protection. In many cases, women have become the
household’s main breadwinners, yet they face major obstacles in accessing work,
including limited opportunities, the burden of family and childcare, and poor
skills – all of which curtail their productive capacity. One significant
outcome is the number of youth who are neither in education nor employed.

Based on the focus group
discussions, host communities believe that their employment situation has
worsened with increased competition and that their wages have been pushed down
due to the cheaper supply of Syrian workers. There were also particular
concerns that Syrian refugees are 43 opening small
enterprises in some areas, blocking opportunities for the Lebanese, in addition
to placing pressure on public services and contributing to price inflation.

 

References.

 

Author: