Abstract:The war inSyria, now in its 6th year, the deterioration of the security and humanitariansituation in Syria as a result of the ongoing crisis has forced thousands ofSyrians to flee and seek refuge in neighboring countries, including Lebanon.
has extremely influencedLebanon’s social and economic areas. The economic and social effect of the Syrian clutch is one of thecritical issues confronting Lebanon. The total number of Syrians refugees whotook shelter in Lebanon since the flare-up of the crises in March 2011 standsat more than 1.
5 million, proportionate to about a fourth of Lebanon’spopulation. This has stressed public financial capacities and the environmentalservices in Lebanon. The crises is additionally anticipated that would increasepoverty among the Lebanese and widen the income inequality gap.
Specifically, estimates show that because of the Syrian crises,around 200,000 Lebanese nationals fell into the grasp of poverty, moreover300,000 Lebanese nationals have turned out to be jobless, and the greater partof them are unskilled youngsters, which is without a doubt a result of the lowcost of Syrian workers.The suddenoverpopulation has influenced almost every conceivable segment: the economy,traffic, trade, health care, public finance, education, safety, tourism, publicdebt, GDP, Growth, infrastructure, the labor market, and waste management. Theflood of evacuees likewise jeopardizes the interior social adjust in Lebanon.To conduct this research A scan through available data was conducted fromtrusted sources and organizations affiliated to or partnering with UNHCR intheir effort to provide services to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Introduction Lebanon, a little nation with a surface area of 10,452 km2 and amountain nature, located on the east of the Mediterranean Sea in western Asiaand bounded by Syria in the north and the east and Palestine in the south.Lebanon’s most significant asset is water; yet, it is considerably lost due toproblematic administration. Lebanon was found in September 1920 and theLebanese constitution was composed in 1926 announcing it as a free economy,parliamentary system, and secular Arabstate.
Corrected after the autonomy in 1943 and Amended again in 1990 throughthe Ta’if Accord, the constitution recognizes the rights of every religiousgroup, yet requests the inevitable end of political confessionalism, formallyperceiving more than 18 religious sects. 4.467 million is the total estimated population, yet no exactnumbers on the populace per sect are available. More than 220,000 Palestinianslive in refugee camps and 40,000 Iraqi refugees and in addition an extra100,000 laborers including domestic specialists and semi-talented laborers,significantly from Egypt, African, and South East Asian nations, live in thecountry. And now The Syrian crises popped up bringing with it Syrian Refugeeinflux.
This project looks at the relationshipbetween the factors effectively predominant in Lebanon and the role of theSyrian refugee influx in the Lebanese economy.Statement ofProblem:The Crises hasinfluenced almost every conceivable segment: the economy, traffic, trade,health care, public finance, education, safety, tourism, public debt, GDP,Growth, infrastructure, the labor market, and waste management. Moreover,increasing the poverty rates in Lebanon, increasing the gap between the richclass and the poor class, and eventually leading the middle class to decreasedramatically. LiteratureReview:The objective of the study was to measure the impact of Syrianrefugees on host communities in order to provide a better understanding oftheir employment profile. Methodology:A scan over accessible data was conducted from trusted sources andassociations affiliated to or partnering together with UNHCR in their effort togive social and health care services to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Numbersand figures were looked up among official reports, surveys and studies fromUNHCR and their partners. Visited databases included Officefor the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, PreventionWeb, ReliefWeb, UnitedNations Development Project, Office of the United Nations Commissioner forRefugees (UNHCR), and the World Health Organization (WHO).
World Bankreports and distributed articles were additionally taken into consideration tohelp with the study.A rich database of data was aggregated on socioeconomics,livelihood, geographic location, and financial status of the refugees inLebanon. Specifically, economic information about the impact of refugees on theeconomy has been collected to draw a comprehensive picture of their presentsituation. For that, information for the years 2011 through 2017 have beenexamined. The target of the examination was to understand the effect ofSyrian refugees have on host communities in order to provide a betterunderstanding on host communities. Themethodological approach depended on a literature view and past knowledgepertinent to the Syrian refugees in the country.The Project adopted the followingmethodology: • Desk review of accessible available literature and recent studieson Syrian refugees.
• A semi- structured questionnaire was created It includedquestions on household composition, employment, education, working conditions,and wages. Conveyed in Mount Lebanon, Aley, Ain Hala. Analysis offindings:The effect of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon is Catastrophic. We willbe analyzing the impact of the Syrian refugees on the Sections of the LebaneseEconomy that includes the: Transit movement, Tourism, Lebanese Companies,Unemployment, GDP, Labor, Enterprises, Education, Health Care, Poverty,Government, and Taxes.TransitMovement:Knowing the Lebanon is bordered by the sea from the west, Palestinefrom the south and Syria from the North and south, that made Lebanon only landconnection with the world under danger. The continuous war in Syria, whichinvolved a condition of insecurity, risks and potential losses, caused a 60%drop in land transportation from Jordan, Iraq and other. This raised thepressure forced ashore and airship cargo limits, prompting an increase intransportation costs that caused to a decrease in transportation activity.
Professor Jasim Ajaqah, consultant to the advisor to the ministerof economy and commerce for economic affairs since 2014, noted in his economicbriefs that Lebanon encountered a 11.4% decrease in revenues in 2015, comparedwith 2014. Imports also dropped by 6% according to the Ministry of Finance.These figures demonstrate that the drop in imports and imports will decreasethe budget deficit by 13.
2% to roughly $3,500 million dollars toward the end2015, as indicated by Professor Ajaqah. Tourism: Tourism, particularly from the Gulf states, has dropped. This isdue to directions from the Gulf governments and local authorities to theircitizens to avoid traveling to Lebanon because of safety concerns.
The tourism and hospitality industryis very susceptible to crisis as this industry is sensitive to visitorsrecognitions and the impact of a decreased willingness to spend by bothcorporate and individual consumers. With the falling apart situation in Syria, Arab tourists are havingtrouble to pass through Syria to reach Lebanon. In addition, various Arabcountries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar have issued travelrestrictions on their citizens wishing visit Lebanon, resulting in a decreasein the number of Arab tourists from 581,597 in 2011 to 458,069 in 2012 and131,894 in the first four months of the year 2013. Other visitors fromdifferent parts of the world (other than Syria) were also hesitant to visitLebanon (most the Middle East, which is seen as a risky area), resulting in adecrease of 17% of tourists over the period 2011-2012. This effect is felt bythe hotel business, with anextraordinary negative effect on occupancy rates and revenues.
Offshoring: fear prevailedover the Lebanese investment market overall. This led investors to search for new destinations and forcompanies to move overseas, accordingly ensuing ina big wave of Lebaneseinvestments in Cyprus. numerous exhibitions, meetings and plans for investments withinthe island are being held. From a historic angle,Cyprus often constituteda secure haven forLebanese organizations sincethe instances of the civil battle (1975-1990). Jobs& Labor:One early manifestation of the effect of the Syrian disaster at the Lebanese economicsystem was obvious on the labour sector.
Minister of Labor Sajan Qazzi confirmed early in the summer of 2015 that theunemployment rate in Lebanonhad reached 25%, 36% of which have been youths, marking a increased if compared to 2014, when unemployment was about 20% according to the World Bank. The influxSyrian refugees played rolein wage cuts due tothe fact many Lebanese workers were replaced by Syrianswho had been willing to just accept lower pay. The crisesprompted Minister Qazzi to issue an order in January 2015 making it compulsory for Syrian employees to attain work permits.The minister’s choice has somewhat reduced the number of Lebanese people being replaced by Syrians.
moreover, these ‘foreign’ companies stand in host communities exclusively employing Syrians in positions sought by low-skill Lebanese workers, which includes: sales persons, waiters, and cleaners.In fact, 45% of Syrian people are employed in agricultural works, building concierges, taxi drivers, domestic workers, andtheir likes. another 43% take on casual positions in commerce and semi-professional jobs, like carpeting, welding, repairmen,mechanics, handicraft, and food processing.the Lebanese economy fails to create sufficient jobs to “absorb thegrowing number of job seekers. According to Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank’sMiddle East Director. “The few jobs left created by the economy areconcentrated in “low productivity sectors” as per the World Bank’s MilesReport. Ultimately, the intense competition between low-skilled Lebanese andSyrians persists in a vicious cycle, with wages left to free fall to protractedhighs.
” And because of the low cost Syrian labor they are taking most of thejobs not mentioning that they don’t have to be guaranteed social security orany recommendations.Enterprises:Many small Lebanese corporations have been crowded-outof the marketplace byusing their Syrian counterparts. Manysmall businesses, suchas restaurants, retail shops, bakeries, mechanical repairs andothers, have been replaced since the beginning of the problem. Syrian businesses have a competitive advantage on several fronts. First, they’re able to offer clientele lessexpensive fees for goods and services they get cheaply thru border-smuggling. Second, countrywide laws confirm that Syrian companies can begin-up “without monitoring” bythe local authorities; therefore, they do not need a license or maybe a rented office space.They ultimately escapefrom the high commercial electricity, water, and tax payments.
Education:The refugee crisis has not mosteffective affected the labor region, it has additionally had a primary impact on education. Accordingto Ministry of education, records for theacademic year 2014-2015, the number of registered Syrians in Lebanon’s public schools, which give free education,reached 40,000. As for the current academic year, at a press conference hung on 15October 2015 to announce a German government supply worth round $45 million to assist Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Minister ofEducation Elias Bou Saab stated thatthe number of students enrolled in Lebanese schools had risen to about 200,000.The Lebanese government is dedicated to offering education to refugeesregistered in public schools. However, every Syrian student is asked to pay an annual registration charge of $100 and someother $60 for the Parents council fund, however in most casesdonors pay those costs. Regarding Syrian studentsenrolled in the afternoon schools, delivered to dealwith the variety of refugees, each student pays feesup to $600 payed from donors mostly. in the meantime, the UN high Commissionerfor Refugees (UNHCR) has allocated just over $73 million to support the schooling of Syrian refugees living in Lebanon. Health Care:therefugee crises has immediately affectedthe health-care area, particularly in the winter when infectious sicknesses consisting of cold andinfluenza spread rapidly among refugees while hospitals are unable to cope with the number of patients.
The Rafiq al-Hariri university clinic, asan instance, is a government health center in Beirut that may accommodate approximately four hundred hospital beds, but is ready with only221. earlier than the begin of the Syrian crisis, 75% of the patients were Lebanese and25% were of various nationalities. Now, nearly half of the patients are Syrians.Poverty:Ultimately, the quality of life of citizens changed, leaving morecitizens below the poverty line. TheUNDP’s 2008 national poverty evaluation pre-crisis confirms around 30% of the Lebanese population (1 million individuals) were living under thepoverty line $4 per capita per day.The study was complemented by the 2013 ESIA report, which discovered very excessive poverty costs concentratedinAkkar region (53%) and the Bekaa (40%), in which Syrian refugees mainly settled.
The World Bank estimated a170,000 to 200,000 extra Lebaneselived below poverty line byusing 2014.Government:Along the effect of refugees on local private consumption and investment, the indirect financial costs ofSyrian refugees magnified refugee-specific expenditures and reduced tax revenues, in the end pressuring the government budgets. It is argued that the Lebanese authorities is “fairly”sharing the weight ofrefugee burden on food, health, and health services with the international community, thatis mainly the UNHCR and its fellow UN government agencies inLebanon. However, thisis only partly true for two key reasons. First, the UNHCR’s database updated on Jan.
1, 2017 suggests that 45%of the funding asked has not beengranted yet but, while the Lebanese authorities is covering the gap indirectly. itis really worth noting that as 55% of refugee charges are funded by using the UNHCR & sister agencies, the other 45% gap (about $850.46 million) ofrefugee-related casts are leftto be tackled mostly by the Lebanese authorities as indirect social and infrastructure costs. By doing so, the Lebanese economicsystem has maintained some balance. In fact,”economic stability” is a public good and its provision is the high responsibility of nationalgovernments who try to give citizens a chance for a “fair quality of life” via a strong economy and affordable costs of living.
However, the arrival of more refugees heightened refugee-specific prices bymeans of 24% and 15% in 2012 and 2013,respectively, exacerbating Lebanon’s price range deficit and lowering the countries capacity to discipline its improved Debt-to-GDP ratio.second, Syrianrefugees not registered withthe UNHCR settled in host communities where they strained the country’s already vulnerable infrastructure. now not beinga signatory of the 1951 Refugee conference, the Lebanese government facilitatedthe access of Syrian refugeesto Lebanon, and consequently,their get admission to public services. The World Banks Economic and Social impact assessment of the Syrian crises on Lebanon (ESIA, hereof) anticipated the direct fiscal price over2012-2014 at US$2.6 billion, of which US$589 million are in infrastructurelosses: water and sanitation, electricity, and transportsub-sectors.
an extra US$1.1Bis incurred if action is takento repair infrastructure getaccess and quality to pre-crisis levels.INCREASED INFLATION AND PRICES The increase in prices of basic commoditiesand services has been a tough issue for webhosting communities and Syrians alike.The growing demand for rented accommodation hasexerted anupward strain on rental charges, anticipated tohave risen on occasion by greater than 200% ina period of six months. The situation appears to be even greater inBeirut in which, in some districts, rents are stated tohave expanded through 400%, becauseof the increasing demand for apartments.
Refugeesare often able to come up with the money for rents bysqueezing several families into one apartment, consequently reducing the capability ofthe Lebanese to rent or buy inthe real estate market. Besides rent,the costs of basic commodities whichinclude food, transportation and water has additionally risen. An analysiscompleted by Development Management International in 2012 on the change ofprices of basic commodities including food, medicines, rent, utility bills,drinking water, washing water and transportation has showed a 15% inflationrate in the region of Bekaa and 6% in the North. The rate increases havebeen attributed to more than one factor, including increase in demanddue to the influx of refugees, the injectionof cash and food/coins vouchers via donors to theSyrian refugees – particularly food and rent – andthe increase in fuel expenses, which amplified thetransportation expenses of products.
On the other hand,the decreased access to less expensive goods isdraining the household income of both Syrians andhost communities. Before the crisis,many merchandise and items was once provided fromSyria at lower costs; however because of thesecurity conditions they’re being purchasedlocally, however extra expensively. Unsurprisingly, inflationary trends vary significantly fromone region to another and have hadthe most intense effect onthe poorest groups that already be sufferby weak purchasing power and a great level ofdeprivation and lack of resources.Tax:at the revenues side ofthe government budget, losses had been incurred in revenue collection and taxes on wagesand salaries since 2011. Revenue collection fromovercrowded communities and casual employment fell by US$1.5B among 2012 and 2014, in line with World Bank estimate. Understanding that a piece of government revenues is gathered from taxes on people’salaries and wages, the broader theworkers force formed inside the labor market ideally meant extensively better revenues earned from taxes paid onwages.
The latest figures obtained from the Ministry ofFinance shows that the pace of growthof government revenues from income tax on wages & salaries is on an alarmingdownward trajectory. Conclusion:One of the main outcomes of thisreport is that Syrian refugees’ conditions are dire in terms of their poorlivelihoods and incomes. The Syrian refugees are, nevertheless, livingside-by-side Lebanese communities who were already suffering from social exclusion.The two populations are concentrated in the most impoverished regions, andcompete for poorly paid and scarce job opportunities.
They earn very lowincomes, have access to low quality overstrained public services, and have tocope with increasing prices. During the initial months of the Syrian refugeeinflux, Lebanese host communities were more hospitable and generous in theirreception of the refugees. However, as the crisis protracted, the economy ofLebanon deteriorated and the influx of Syrian refugees kept growing,threatening social stability within host communities. Indeed, the Syrian crisis andrefugee influx has had many destabilizing consequences for Lebanon as a whole.A recent World Bank assessment points to a reduction in GDP growth by 2.
85 percent each year since the crisis began and estimates that the total cost of thecrisis to Lebanon will reach 7.5 USD billion by end 2014. This includes, asnoted earlier, impact on major economic sectors such as services, trade andtourism. Moreover, public spending on education and health has increasedsignificantly; the quality of public services has reportedly deteriorated whileprices for basic necessities, such as fuel or rental accommodation, haveincreased.
40 Over and above, prior to the Syriancrisis, Lebanon had been facing high unemployment rates that coincided with aprevalence of low quality and low productivity jobs in an unregulated andpoorly governed labour market. This related mainly to a lack of compliance withlabour laws in terms of deteriorating working conditions and a large informaleconomy that included child labour and limited application of the minimum wagelaws. The current study helped to shedlight on the profile of Syrian refugees.
They are mostly young, poorly educatedand have minimal savings or incomes. The economically active among them areeither unemployed or working in low skilled low paid jobs, mostly on dailywages and without any form of protection. In many cases, women have become thehousehold’s main breadwinners, yet they face major obstacles in accessing work,including limited opportunities, the burden of family and childcare, and poorskills – all of which curtail their productive capacity. One significantoutcome is the number of youth who are neither in education nor employed. Based on the focus groupdiscussions, host communities believe that their employment situation hasworsened with increased competition and that their wages have been pushed downdue to the cheaper supply of Syrian workers.
There were also particularconcerns that Syrian refugees are 43 opening smallenterprises in some areas, blocking opportunities for the Lebanese, in additionto placing pressure on public services and contributing to price inflation. References.